The U.S. Treasury released statistics the end of July, 2010 for the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) program. The statistics showed that loans that have been permanently modified had a re-default rate to be around 2% – 5.9% 60 or more days past due after modification and 1.7% 90 or more days delinquent. When those statistics came out, they received a huge outcry from analysts questioning the validity of these statistics.
The Treasury pulled the numbers and re-evaluated the statistics after retaining a third-party consultant to provide independent validation. A few weeks later, they corrected the re-default assessments as follows: 10% of six month old permanent modifications are 60+ days delinquent and 6% are 90+ days delinquent.
Analysts say that’s still too low and the rates will surely go higher the longer the program is in place. Up until six months ago, permanent modifications had been offered to only about 434,716 borrowers. The Treasury has cancelled the temporary modifications of 616,839 borrowers.
The analysts at Barclays are predicting a 60% re-default rate and Fitch Ratings projects 55-75%.
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- HAMP: Still fundamentally broken (hsh.com)
- Treasury Correction: Modified Mortgages Perform Less Favorably (blogs.wsj.com)
- Bank of America Permanent HAMP Modifications Increase 5.9% in July (housingwire.com)